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Sporting KC’s MLS Cup and Odds Against San Jose Earthquakes

Plus the odds of all the other teams chasing the Cup.

By Chad Smith
MLS: Sporting Kansas City at Real Salt Lake
Sporting Kansas City forward Johnny Russell (7), center celebrates with teammates after his first half goal against the Real Salt Lake at Rio Tinto Stadium.
Jeffrey Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

Betting odds are just for comparison. I personally don’t endorse gambling and you definitely shouldn’t gamble with money you can’t afford to lose. If you need help with gambling addiction you can call 1-800-662-HELP (4357) to reach the SAMHSA National Helpline for free.

Ever since Sporting Kansas City locked down the first place spot in the MLS Western Conference with a win over Real Salt Lake, there has been talk that they aren’t really the best in the West. Frankly, that talk started before the Decision Day games had even been played. It centered around Sporting KC having played less games (by no fault of their own) and having a better points per game average by facing “weaker” opponents (which, by the way, they would be first based on the old playoff format too). It is true that KC haven’t had to play the Seattle Sounders, Portland Timbers, LAFC, LA Galaxy or San Jose Earthquakes. We’ll see what impact that has.

Possibly because of the schedule (or other perceived deficiencies), SKC have only the 7th best odds of winning MLS Cup at 8 to 1. Despite the fact that they have homefield throughout the West and would only go on the road against Philadelphia or Toronto in MLS Cup. That’s behind already eliminated NYCFC and just ahead of the Timbers (who finished 3rd in the West). LAFC, who finished 7th in the West, are 3rd best overall on odds. The Supporter Shield winning Union have the best odds.

The Earthquakes on the other hand have the worst odds of any team remaining in the playoffs at 150 to 1. The team that is the lowest but maybe best odds for an upset are the Colorado Rapids. They are coming off big wins over Seattle and Portland and are 6-3-0 in their final nine, including three straight wins entering the playoffs. I’m definitely pull for Minnesota as SKC have been less than convincing against Colorado in my opinion.

Odds via Points Bet

As for the odds of today’s game against San Jose, Kansas City are favorites as the one seed playing at home. SKC to win are -185 and the Quakes are +450 to win.

In a single-elimination format, anything can happen. Homefield advantage doesn’t mean quite as much with empty or nearly empty stadiums. However, in four games so far in the playoffs, the home team is undefeated. There were some shaky moments (did you see the chaos in Orlando?!?) but so far they’ve all gotten it done.

Sporting KC are up next. Let’s not break that trend.

For a non-betting perspective, FiveThirtyEight.com has Sporting KC at the second best odds to win MLS Cup at 13 percent. First are the Union at 27 percent. 538 take a very analytics based approached. Seattle and Toronto (who have played in three straight MLS Cups) are tied for 3rd at 12 percent. The odds start to drop significantly after that with Nashville and San Jose having less than one percent chance.

Update: Initially this said San Jose was 15 to 1 instead of 150 to 1.

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